Trade Patterns, Technology Flows, and Productivity Growth

This paper presents a model of international trade in differentiated intermediate goods. Because intermediates are invented through costly R&D investments, employing foreign intermediates implies sharing the return to R&D with the inventor country. I first derive a relation of how domestic productivity is related to foreign R&D investments. In the subsequent empirical analysis, industry level data for eight OECD countries between 1970-91 is used to estimate that relation. The robustness of interpreting empirical findings is emphasized, to which effect I employ Monte-Carlo techniques, and the part of international R&D spillovers that is related to trade is quantified. I find evidence, first, that domestic and foreign R&D affect productivity differently, in contrast to assuming symmetric effects. Second, the productivity effects resulting from R&D vary substantially by which country conducts the R&D. Third, I find that the composition of a country’s import partners does not significantly affect the estimated effect from foreign R&D, indicating a large component in the benefit from foreign R&D which is not related to trade. Lastly, I estimate that international trade contributes about 20% to the total productivity effect from foreign R&D. I would like to thank, without implicating them, Robert Evenson, Zvi Griliches, Elhanan Helpman, Rody Manuelli and T.N. Srinivasan for helpful comments on an earlier draft. †1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, Wi 53706; email: [email protected].